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1、市場預(yù)測與決策預(yù)測下期電視產(chǎn)量班級:姓名:學號:、某企業(yè)的電視產(chǎn)量預(yù)測，現(xiàn)擁有最近連續(xù)20個刀的資料如下表所示：單位（萬臺）口回岡二、根據(jù)資料數(shù)據(jù)，繪制序列圖形:■Series:PRODUCTIOMTorkfile:U1TITLEDViqwFrocs

2、Objects

3、FrintName

4、Freeze

5、Samp"GenrSheetStats

6、IdentLine

7、BPRODUCTION從圖中看這個企業(yè)近20個月的產(chǎn)量并不存在明顯趨勢，也沒有明顯的季節(jié)趨勢。因此，從直觀上判斷可以采用一次指數(shù)平滑法對企業(yè)下個月的產(chǎn)量進行預(yù)測。三、擴大樣本期一個月：更改

8、樣本期1?21月到2004年9月：PRODUCTIONTorkflie:UHTITEED口回岡View]ProcvIObJects

9、Print

10、NameFreeze

11、Edi2/—

12、ILabel+/rI*ide+-IInsDelITitie

13、SampleIGervr

14、PRODUCTIONLastupdated:06/08/11-21:07I2003:0118990002003:022000.0002003:0320200002003:0417800002003:051985.0002003:0620110002003:072103.0002003

15、:0819020002003:091895.0002003:1020340002003:1119740002003:1218600002004:0120140002004:0219000002004:0319990002004:0417980002004:0520140002004:061835.0002004:0719870002004:082041.0002004:09NA<

16、

17、—L>I四、進行指數(shù)平滑操作:(1)、Alpha設(shè)定0.3時■Series:PRODUCTIONVorkfile:UHTITLED□回區(qū)）View

18、ProcsObj

19、ects

20、Print

21、NameFreeze

22、Edit+/"

23、Smpl+/-Label+/"Wide+-InsDelTitleSample

24、Genr

25、Date:06/08/11Time:21:12Sample:2003:012004:08Includedobsen/ations:20Method:Holt-WintersNoSeasonalOriginalSeries:PRODUCTIONForecastSeries:PRODUCSMParameters:Alpha0.3000Beta0.0000SumofSquaredResiduals2023

26、257RootMeanSquaredError100.5797EndofPeriodLevels:Mean1982.954Trend7.500000(2)、Alpha設(shè)定0.5時:■iSeries:PRODUCTIONlorkfile:UHTITLED□回區(qū)ViewProcsObjects

27、PrintName

28、Freeze

29、SampleGenrSheet

30、Sta/ts11dentLin?Bar

31、Date:06/08/11Time:21:28Sample:2003:012004:08Includedobservations:20Method:Ho

32、lt-WintersNoSeasonalOriginalSeries:PRODUCTIONForecastSeries:PRODUCSMParameters:Alpha0.5000Beta0.0000SumofSquaredResiduals234800.1RootMeanSquaredError108.3513EndofPeriodLevels:Mean1997.630Trend7.500000Alpha為0.3的預(yù)測殘差平方和100.5797Alpha為0.5的預(yù)測殘差平方和108.3513所以選擇平滑系數(shù)為0?3的預(yù)測結(jié)果:1983萬臺。