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1、PART3StocksandOptionsChapter6Risk,Return,andtheCapitalAssetPricingModelChapter7Stocks,StockValuation,andStockMarketEquilibriumChapter8FinancialOptionsandApplicationsinCorporateFinance215ThispageintentionallyleftblankCHAPTER6Risk,Return,andtheCapitalAssetPricingMode

2、lssungbytheGratefulDead,“Whatalong,strangetripit’sbeen!”AThechartbelowprovidessomeinsightsintothestockmarket’srisksandreturns.Thetopportionshowstherelativechangesinpricesince1994forGeneralElectric(GE),GeneralMotors(GM),andtheS&P500Index.Thebottomportionshowsthepric

3、e/earningsratioforGE.StockPerformance,1994-20099GEWWW8SP5007GMUpdatesonstockprices6canbefoundatmanyWebsites,includinghttp://5finance.yahoo.com.ForupdatesonP/Eratios,4seeYahoo!,ValueLine3InvestmentSurvey,orGE’sannualreports.2101994199920042009GE'sP/ERatio,1994-20084

4、5403530252015105019941996199820002002200420062008217218Part3:StocksandOptionsLet’stakealookatseveralsub-periods.1996–2000.TheseyearswerewonderfulforGE,greatfortheS&Pstocks,andprettygoodevenforGM.ThedramaticincreaseinP/Eratiosindicatedthatstockpricesweregoingupmorea

5、saresultofincreasingexpectationsthanactualearnings,whichwasadangeroussign.AlanGreenspan,ChairmanoftheFederalReserveBoardatthattime,statedthatthemarketwassufferingfrom“irrationalexuberance,”butinvestorspaidnoattentionandkeptroaringahead.2001–2003.Greenspanwasright.T

6、hebubblestartedtoleakin2001,the9/11terroristattacksontheWorldTradeCenterknockedstocksdownfurther,andin2002fearsofanotherattackplusarecessiondrovethemarketdownevenmore.Thosethreeyearscosttheaverageinvestoralmost50%ofhisorherbeginning-of-2000marketvalue.P/Eratiosplun

7、ged,reflectinginvestors’decliningexpectations.2004–2007.Investorshadoverreacted,soin2004themarketasmeasuredbytheS&P500beganarebound,remainingstrongthrough2007.Theeconomywasrobust,profitswererisingrapidly,andtheFederalReserveencouragedabullmarketbycuttinginterestrat

8、eseleventimes.In2007theS&Phitanall-timehigh.2007–2009.Thefinancialcrisiscausedbymortgage-backedsecuritiesspilledoverintothestockmarketsandtheecon