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1、我國肉雞發(fā)展趨勢分析一、從歷史數(shù)據(jù)看肉雞走勢1、肉種雞數(shù)據(jù)變化趨勢2012.7月--2013年7月肉毛雞價格走勢草位：無/公斤12年7月12年10月13年1月13年4月13年7月來連：神農(nóng)網(wǎng)2、雞苗價格數(shù)據(jù)變化趨勢圖12：雞苗價格走勢液動圖3、肉雞存欄量的變化2005^-2012^白羽肉種祖代引種統(tǒng)計時間20052006200720082009201020112012數(shù)量（萬套）52.2949.4968.0778.5993.6097.31111.381384、人均消費雞肉的變化趨勢1、肉雞產(chǎn)品消費——歷史趨勢雞肉進(jìn)口?人均消費量800

2、014?20ooooooO7654321100012006100000800240雞肉產(chǎn)最-總消費t199019951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008肉雞產(chǎn)品消費——歷史趨勢1952-2008年全國人均家庭口糧和畜產(chǎn)品増長惜況單位：千克/人口糧紅肉豬肉牛羊肉禽肉其中：雞的19522276.845.920.920.430.3019572336」95.081.110.50.3519601642.561.53L030360.2519652107316.291.020.36

3、0.2519782258.427.670.750.440.31198024611.991L160.830.800.56198523912.8111.830.981.551.09199023914.0912.631.451.82L27199522213.7312311.212.451.72199920615.7614.001.763.232.26200019916.4614.531.933.762.63200118916.2414331.913.792.65200218518.1616.271.895.383.77200316418.5

4、716492.095.663.96200416018.1415.882.294.483」4A

5、2008-23.9615.672.276.024.21數(shù)據(jù)來源：根據(jù)歷年屮國統(tǒng)計年鑒農(nóng)村和城鎮(zhèn)居民人均消裁雖加權(quán)*?均所得：雞肉按優(yōu)肉的70%計算c二、影響我國肉禽產(chǎn)業(yè)耒來發(fā)展的主要因素1、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)(-)貨幣發(fā)行量M3貨帀發(fā)行ht年紛GOP（億元人陽幣）M2（億元人馬幣）（當(dāng)年1

6、2月統(tǒng)）M2/GDPcpid2fira比）2010397,98372S.8521&?%4.6%2009340,903610^25179%1.0%2008314,045475J67151%1.2%2007265t810403,401152%6.5%2006216,314345578160%2.8%20051fi4r937298,755162%1.6%2004159,878253208158%2.4%2003135.823219.227161%3.2%12002120,333183.247152%-0.4%2001109,655152^8

7、9139%-0.3%M2MlMO年總和增長量増長率4579514.81-2138295.88-0.31831634925.58-665833.78-0.2894279463.46-147719.61-0.34582009.006717810.691412143.670.2661582300759.36436112.160.233885427183.0746074.300.1208952008.005305667.02754975.380.1659031864647.20223221.690.135993381108.7741901.5

8、70.1235282007.004550691.64679353.550.1754831641425.51284784.210.209919339207.2039663.290.1324122006.003871338.09553274.460.1667461356641.30171835.020.145032299543.9135074.950.1326242005.003318063.63464946.760.1629611184806.28125132.580.118086264468.9624200.330.100722200

9、4.002853116.87416784.950.1710711059673.70148496.300.162972240268.6322751.960.1045992003.002436331.92409329.450