《the economics of exchange rates》由會員上傳分享，免費(fèi)在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在工程資料-天天文庫。

1、1IntroductionInthelastfewdecadesorsoexchangerateeconomicshasseenanumberofimportantdevelopments,withsubstantialcontributionstoboththetheoryandtheempiricsofexchangeratedetermination.Importantdevelopmentsineconometricsandtheincreasingavailabilityofhigh-qualitydatahavealsobeenresponsibleforstimulat

2、ingthelargeamountofempiricalworkonexchangeratespublishedoverthisperiod.Nevertheless,whileourunderstandingofexchangerateshassigni?cantlyimproved,anumberofchallengesandopenquestionsremainintheexchangeratedebate,furtherenhancedbyimportanteventsinthiscontextsuchasthelaunchoftheeuroasthesingleEurope

3、ancurrencyinJanuary1999andthelargenumberofcurrencycriseswhichoccurredduringthe1990s.Inthisbook–partmonograph,partadvancedtextbook–weprovideaselectivecoverageoftheliteratureonexchangerateeconomics,focusingparticularlybutnotexclusivelyoncontributionsmadeduringthelast?fteenyearsorso.Throughouttheb

4、ookouraimis,inadditiontogivingaclearexposition,toprovideconstructivecriticismoftheliteratureandtosuggestfurtheravenuesforresearchandanalysis.ThesurveyarticlebyTaylor(1995)on‘TheEconomicsofExchangeRates’,whichprovidesacomprehensivereviewofthepost-warliteratureonthesubjectuntiltheearly1990s,maybe

5、seenasusefulgroundworkpreliminarytothestudyofthisbook,althoughreaderswithagoodgeneralbackgroundineconomicsshouldbeabletotacklethebookheadon.Inthisbriefintroduction,weprovideaguidetothefollowingchapters.Chapter2coverstheliteratureonforeignexchangemarketef?ciency.Inanef?cientspeculativemarketpric

6、esshouldfullyre?ectinformationavailabletomarketparticipantsanditshouldbeimpossibleforatradertoearnexcessreturnstospeculation.Academicinterestinforeignexchangemarketef?ciencycanbetracedtoargumentsconcerningtheinformationcontentof?nancialmarketpricesandtheimplicationsforsocialef?ciency.Initssimpl

7、estform,theef?cientmarketshypothesiscanbereducedtoajointhypothesisthatforeignexchangemarketparticipantsare,inanaggregatesense,endowedwithrationalexpectationsandarerisk-neutral.Thehypothesiscanbemodi?edtoadjustforrisk,sothatitthenb