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1、1CHAPTER1THEDARKSIDEOFVALUATIONIn1990,thetenlargestfirms,intermsofmarketcapitalization,intheworldwereindustrialandnaturalresourcegiantsthathadbeeninexistenceformuchofthecentury.ByJanuary2000,thetwofirmsatthetopofthelistwereCiscoandMicrosoft,twotechnologyfirmsthathadbarelyreg

2、isteredabliponthescaletenyearsprior.Infact,sixofthetenlargestfirms1,intermsofmarketcapitalization,atthebeginningof2000weretechnologyfirms,andamazingly,fourofthesixhadbeeninexistencefor25yearsorless.Inanillustrationofthespeedingupofthelifecycle,Microsoft,inexistenceonlysince1

3、977,wasconsideredanoldtechnologyfirmin2000.Thenewtechnologyfirmsdominatingfinancialmarketswerethecompaniesthatusetheinternettodeliverproductsandservices.Thefactthatthesefirmshadlittleinrevenuesandlargeoperatinglosseshadnotdeterredinvestorsfrombiddinguptheirstockpricesandmaki

4、ngthemworthbillionsofdollars.Intheeyesofsome,thehighmarketvaluationscommandedbytechnologystocks,relativetootherstocks,weretheresultofcollectiveirrationalityonthepartoftheseinvestors,andwerenotindicativeoftheunderlyingvalueofthesefirms.Intheeyesofothers,thesevaluationswererea

5、sonableindicatorsthatthefuturebelongstotheseinternetinterlopers.Ineithercase,traditionalvaluationmodelsseemedillsuitedforthesefirmsthatbestrepresentedtheneweconomy.DefiningaTechnologyFirm1ThesixfirmswereCisco,Microsoft,Oracle,Intel,IBMandLucent.OftheseonlyIBMandIntelhadwerep

6、ubliclytradedfirmsin1975.Microsoftwentpublicin1986,Oraclein1987andCiscoin1990.LucentwasspunoffbyAT&Tin1996.2Whatisatechnologyfirm?Thelineisincreasinglyblurredasmoreandmorefirmsusetechnologytodelivertheirproductsandservices.Thus,Wal-MarthasanonlinepresenceandGeneralMotorsisex

7、ploringcreatingawebsitewherecustomerscanordercars,butWal-MartisconsideredaretailfirmandGeneralMotorsanautomobilemanufacturingfirm.Why,then,areCiscoandOracleconsideredtechnologyfirms?Therearetwogroupsoffirmsthatatleastinpopularterminology,technologyfirms.Thefirstgroupincludes

8、firmslikeCiscoandOraclethatdelivertechnology-basedortechnology-orientedprod