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1、JournalofEnvironmentalManagement92(2011)982e993ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectJournalofEnvironmentalManagementjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/jenvmanProspectivechangesinirrigationwaterrequirementscausedbyagriculturalexpansionandclimatechangesintheeasternarcmountain

2、sofKenyaEduardoEijiMaeda*,PetriK.E.Pellikka,BarnabyJ.F.Clark,MikaSiljanderDepartmentofGeosciencesandGeography,UniversityofHelsinki,GustafH?llstr?minkatu2,00014Helsinki,FinlandarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:Waterresourcesandlandusearecloselylinkedwitheachotherandwithregionalcl

3、imate,assemblingReceived1May2010averycomplexsystem.TheunderstandingoftheinterconnectingrelationsinvolvedinthissystemisanReceivedinrevisedformessentialstepforelaboratingpublicpoliciesthatcaneffectivelyleadtothesustainableuseofwater11October2010resources.Inthisstudy,anintegratedmo

4、dellingframeworkwasassembledinordertoinvestigateAccepted1November2010potentialimpactsofagriculturalexpansionandclimatechangesonIrrigationWaterRequirements(IWR)Availableonline15December2010intheTaitaHills,Kenya.Theframeworkcomprisedalandusechangesimulationmodel,areferenceevapotra

5、nspirationmodelandsyntheticprecipitationdatasetsgeneratedthroughaMonteCarlosimu-Keywords:lation.Inordertogenerateplausibleclimatechangescenarios,outputsfromGeneralClimateModelsTaitahillsWaterresourceswereusedasreferencetoperturbingtheMonteCarlosimulations.Theresultsindicatethatt

6、hroughoutSimulationmodelsthenext20yearsthelowavailabilityofarablelandsinthehillswilldriveagriculturalexpansiontoareasAgriculturalexpansionwithhigherIWRinthefoothills.Ifcurrenttrendspersist,agriculturalareaswilloccupyroughly60%ofClimatechangethestudyareaby2030.Thisexpansionwillin

7、creasebyapproximately40%theannualwatervolumenecessaryforirrigation.Climatechangemayslightlydecreasecrops’IWRinAprilandNovemberby2030,whileinMayasmallincreasewilllikelybeobserved.Theintegratedassessmentoftheseenvi-ronmentalchangesallowedaclearidenti?cationofpriorityregionsforland

8、useallocationpoliciesandwaterresourcesmanagemen